Welcome to Between the Numbers — where we look at what the Hudl IQ data tells us about what to expect in the unexpected world of college football.
Week 5 is here, and the theme of the week is problem-solving. We’re going to dive into three matchups — and the data behind their most intriguing players — to get you ready.
This week: Who wins the battle of young star quarterbacks? Is everyone sleeping on Oregon State’s star wide receiver? And is North Dakota State a Group of 6 CFP contender?
The Matchup
Alabama vs. Mississippi State
Don’t look now, but Saturday’s matchup between Alabama and Mississippi State suddenly carries a lot more weight than we once thought.
On one side stands Alabama, led by its young phenom quarterback, Keelon Russell, and a nasty defense. The Crimson Tide have blown past any team in their wake this season. But Saturday presents a new set of challenges.
One of the things that makes Russell so effective is that he can make just about any throw. Through four games, he’s done an excellent job spreading the wealth and spraying the ball to the short, medium and deep parts of the field.
Then there’s Mississippi State, a program with a brand-new trajectory because of the meteoric rise of superstar quarterback Kamario Taylor. Taylor is the ultimate problem-solver, but hasn’t faced a defense this good quite yet.
Taylor’s specialty is stress-testing defenses with chunk plays. Through four games, Taylor is averaging 14.4 yards per completion and creates a chunk pass 28% of the time.
This game features two of the brightest young quarterbacks in all of college football. If both play up to their potential, this one could be high-scoring and come down to the wire.
The Radar
Oregon State WR Jesse Legree
Oregon State’s Jesse Legree is running roughshod this season.
The freshman from Baltimore, Maryland, is averaging 25.4 yards per reception and has tallied six touchdowns through four games.
Perhaps the best part of his game is his deep-threat abilities. Just look at that Routes Run Chart!
If Legree keeps this up, he’ll be one of the most coveted wideouts in college football at season’s end.
The Player to Watch
North Dakota State QB Nathan Hayes
Lost in the shuffle of a busy first third of the college football season is North Dakota State’s seamless fit at the FBS level.
The Bison dominated the FCS ranks for over a decade, winning 10 FCS national championships. Now, in its first season at this level, NDSU looks primed and ready to make a run at the Mountain West title, and possibly the Group of 6 College Football Playoff spot.
A big reason why is the strong play of quarterback Nathan Hayes.
Through four games, Hayes has notched 0.24 EPA/Play and 0.26 EPA/Pass figures, while completing 66.7% of his passes. He’s also creating chunk pass plays 21% of the time and explosive plays on 11% of his completions.
If Hayes’ completion percentage wasn’t convincing enough, he’s also notched a 5.5% Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), which measures a quarterback’s accuracy relative to the difficulty of the passes they attempt.
This figure is further proof that Hayes isn’t just accurate on passes he should complete, but is also throwing extremely catchable balls on more difficult attempts.
There’s a real possibility that the Bison keep up this commanding start for the next month before a monster matchup against other Mountain West favorite New Mexico in late October.
Keep an eye on what North Dakota State does moving forward. The Bison are not a program to mess with right now.
