Welcome to Between the Numbers — where we look at what the Hudl IQ data tells us about what to expect in the unexpected world of college football.
Week 6 is here, and this week’s slate gives a few teams upset opportunities. We’re going to dive into three matchups — and the data behind their most intriguing players — to get you ready.
This week: Is the Nebraska QB key to the Huskers springing an upset? Does the ACC’s best running back play for Duke? Plus, North Texas did it again at QB.
The Matchup
Indiana vs. Nebraska
The biggest game of the Matt Rhule era is here.
On one side stands Indiana, the defending national champs that haven’t lost in 21 games. The Hoosiers are 5-0, but haven’t been forced to get out of first gear for much of the season.
One Indiana player who’s had a nice start to the season is running back Lee Beebe. He’s averaging just shy of four yards after contact per rush attempt. If the Hoosiers can eat up yards in the run game, it might be a long afternoon for the Huskers.
On the home sideline stands Nebraska, a fellow 5-0 team looking to spring an upset. The story of the Nebraska offense is centered on Anthony Colandera. Albeit against less-than-convincing competition, Colandera has notched 0.39 EPA/Play and 0.35 EPA/Pass figures, and is creating chunk pass plays 22% of the time. Those are good efficiency numbers!
He’s done a nice job of attacking defenses around the line of scrimmage, while also letting it rip to the wide parts of the field.
His ability to extend drives with his legs and spread the wealth on passing concepts will be key if the Huskers hope to pull off the seismic upset.
The Radar
Duke RB Nate Sheppard
Duke’s Nate Sheppard is flying under the radar, despite being one of the most efficient and effective running backs in college football.
Over four games, Sheppard has notched 0.23 EPA/Play and 0.21 EPA/Rush, while averaging just shy of seven yards per carry.
Perhaps the most absurd part of Sheppard’s game is the way he doesn’t go down on first contact. This season, he’s averaging 1.7 Yards Before Contact per Attempt and a whopping 5.1 Yards After Contact per Attempt.
Sheppard isn’t just shredding defenses. He’s shrugging off would-be tacklers and has quickly become the focal point of the Duke offense.
Pay attention to Sheppard and the Blue Devils moving forward. Duke sits at 4-0 and, if things break right, could make lots of noise in deciding who plays in the ACC title game.
The Player to Watch
North Texas QB Tayven Jackson
Don’t look now, but North Texas found another fun college quarterback.
A season ago, Drew Mestemaker dominated the American Conference as one of the most efficient signal-callers in college football.
When he followed head coach Eric Morris to Oklahoma State, new Mean Green coach Neal Brown turned to former Indiana backup Tayven Jackson. Jackson has been a smashing success through five games.
Jackson has thrown for 1,519 yards and 10 touchdowns, while completing 71.3% of his passes. He’s creating chunk plays at a good clip (25.6%) and is throwing an extremely catchable ball, as evidenced by his 9.2% Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE).
It might be a bit too much to expect the Mean Green to win the American this season. But they've built a fun offense that's sure to keep them in most games down the stretch.
